Cardano ADA

ADA likely to test yearly lows around $0.39 soon

Market update

Cryptocurrency sentiment is bullish on Friday, with major coins all moving forward and speculative altcoins outperforming. Bitcoin was last trading about 4.0% higher over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap, last changing hands just below $21,000. Ethereum, on the other hand, last changed hands around $1,230, up over 10% in the last 24 hours.

US data released on Friday suggested the Fed will hike rates “only” by 75 basis points later this month, instead of the 100 basis points some analysts had called for following Wednesday’s alarmingly high headline inflation numbers. US retail sales data released on Friday remained resilient and consumer sentiment data were also better than expected, easing fears of a near-term US recession.

But that didn’t spark fears that the Fed would be emboldened to hike rates aggressively amid the still-resilient economy, as the latest Consumer Inflation Expectations figures released by the University of Michigan showed a easing in consumer inflation fears. Keeping long-term inflation expectations anchored close to 2.0% is crucial for the Fed to maintain its credibility, so recent developments are likely to allay the bank’s fears.

Next week is pretty quiet as far as US macro events go. Fed comments are under scrutiny, with the latest Fed members to speak all suggesting that a 75 basis point rate hike later this month is appropriate rather than calling for a 100 basis point move . On Friday, the market implied odds of a 100 basis point rate hike later this month had fallen to around 30% from 75% on Thursday.

Cardano (ADA) price prediction

The native token of the Cardano blockchain ADA was last seen trading slightly lower on Friday as the cryptocurrency lagged a more optimistic crypto market. The cryptocurrency last changed hands at around $0.44 per token, still up a healthy 9.0% from Wednesday’s lows of $0.40, but still up around 5.0% on the week.

ADA broke below a key medium-term support level earlier in the week, an uptrend from May lows for the year. This uptrend that used to provide support has now turned into resistance and is limiting ADA/USD’s upside for now.

The cryptocurrency’s failure to clear this resistance area suggests that the bears are in control. A test of the yearly lows around $0.39 seems likely in the coming sessions, provided the broad crypto risk appetite bounce does not kick into high gear in the coming days/weeks.

As mentioned in previous articles, $0.39 is a key area for ADA long-term support. A break below could open the door to a cascade of selling pressures that could push the cryptocurrency all the way below $0.20. That would be another 60% drawdown from current levels. ADA is already trading about 85% lower than its August 2021 record highs above $3.0.